【分析解答题】

An actual recession in the euro area　 

earlier  this year， when America first sneezed， the European Central Bank （along with most private-sector economists） argued that the euro area was insulated from America‘s slowdown and had little to worry about. This seems to have been wrong. In Germany there are fears about recession as business investment and retail sales tumble. Recent figures confirmed that Germany‘s GDP stagnated in the second quarter. Italy‘s GDP fell in the second quarter， and although growth has held up better in France and Spain， the growth in the euro area as a whole was close to zero in the quarter. Nobody is forecasting an actual recession in the euro area this year， but it is no longer expected to provide an engine for world growth. As for Japan， it is probably already in recession. Japan‘s GDP grew slightly in the first quarter. Persistent deflation continues to be a severe problem. A revised measure of Japan‘s consumer-price index， to be published soon， is likely to show that deflation is worse than had been thought.