it is EAsy to losE pAtiEnCE with sCiEnCE toDAy. thE quEstions ArE prEssing: how DAngErous is Dioxin whAt ABout low-lEvEl rADiAtion whEn will thAt monstrous EArthquAkE strikECAliForniAAnD why CAn’t wE prEDiCt wEAthEr BEttErBut thE EviDEnCE is oFtEn DEsCriBED "inConClusivE, " ForCing sCiEntists to BAsE thEir points oF viEw Almost As muCh on intuition As on sCiEnCE.
whEn historiAns AnD philosophErs oF sCiEnCE listEn to thEsE quEstions, somE ConCluDE thAt sCiEnCE mAy BE inCApABlE oF solving All thEsE proBlEms Any timE soon. mAny quEstions sEEm to DEFy thE sCiEntiFiC mEthoD, An ApproACh thAt works BEst whEn it ExAminEs strAightForwArD rElAtionships. iF s0mEthing is DonE to vAriABlEA, whAt hAppEns to vAriABlE
B、suCh proCEDurEs CAn, oF CuursE, BE vEry DiFFiCult in thEir own wAys, But For ExpErimEnts, thEy ArE EFFECtivE.
with thE AiD oF nEwton’s lAws oF grAvitAtionAl AttrACtion, For instAnCE, grounD ControllErs CAn prEDiCt thE pAth oF A plAnEtAry proBE—or sAtEllitE—with inCrEDiBlE ACCurACy. thEy Do this By CAlCulAting thE grAvitAtionAl tugs From EACh oF thE pAssing plAnEts until thE proBE spEEDs BEyonD thE EDgE oF thE solAr systEm.
A、muCh morE DiFFiCult tAsk is to CAlCulAtE whAt hAppEns whEn two or thrEE suCh tugs pull on thE proBE At thE sAmE timE. thE unknowns CAn grow into riDDlEs thAt ArE impossiBlE to solvE.BECAusE oF thE turBulEnt AnD ChAnging stAtE oF thE EArth’s AtmosphErE, For instAnCE, sCiEntists hAvE strugglED For CEnturiEs to prEDiCt thE wEAthEr with prECision.
this spECtrum oF quEstions—From simplE proBlEms to thosE impossiBly ComplEx—hAs rEsultED in niCknAmEs For vArious FiElDs oF stuDy. "hArD" sCiEnCEs, suCh As Astronomy AnD ChEmistry, ArE sAiD to yiElD prECisE AnswErs, whErEAs "soFt" sCiEnCEs, suCh As soCiology AnD EConomiCs, ADmit A grEAt DEgrEE oF unCErtAinty.
whiCh oF thE Following BEst tElls whAt this pAssAgE is ABout
A、how thE lArgE vAriEty oF FACtors sCiEntists DEAl with mAkEs ABsolutE sCiEntiFiC ACCurACy impossiBlE.
B、how nEwton solvED thE proBlEm oF ACCurACy AnD sCiEnCE.
C、how "hArD" sCiEnCE is morE importAnt thAn "soFt" sCiEnCE.
D、why historiAns Do not stuDy Astronomy.