"We’re using the wrong word," says SeanDrysdale, a desperate doctor from a rural hospital at Hlabisa in northern KwaZulu-Natal. "This isn’t an epidemic, it’s a disaster. "A、recent UNIEF report, which states that almost one-third of Swaziland’s 900,000 people are infected with HIV, the virus that causesAIDS, supports this diagnosis. HIV is spreading faster in southernAfrica than anywhere else in the worlD、
But is anyone paying attentionDespite the fact that most of the world’s 33.5 million HIV/AIDS cases are in sub-SaharanAfrica—with an additional 4 million infected each year—the priorities at last week’s Organization ofAfrican Unity summit were conflict resolution and economies development. Yet the epidemic could have a greater effect on economic development—or, rather, the lack of it—than many politicians suspect. While business leaders are more concerned about the 2K millennium bug than the long-term effect ofAIDS, statistics show that the workfare in SouthAfrica, for instance, is likely to be 20% HIV positive by next year. Medical officials and researchers warn that not a single country in the region has a cohesive government strategy to tackle the crisis. The way managers addressAIDS in the workplace will determine whether their companies survive the first decade of the 21st century, saysDeane Moore, an actuary for SouthAfrica’s Metropolitan Life InsuranceCompany. Moore estimates that in SouthAfrica there will be 580,000 newAIDS cases a year and a life expectancy of just 38 by 2010. "We’ll be back to the MiddleAges," saysDrysdale, whose hospital is in one of the areas in SouthAfrica with the highest rates of HIV infection. "The graph is heading toward the vertical.And yet people are still not taking it seriously. " Most southernAfrican countries are simply too poor to supply more than basic health services, let alone medicines, to confront the crisis. Patients in some government hospitals in Harare have to supply their own bedding, food, drugs and, in some cases, even their own nurses. Zimbabwe’s frail domestic economy depends to a large extent on informal enterprises and small businesses, many of which are going bankrupt asAIDS takes its toll on owners and employees. "The ripple effect is devastating," says HarareAIDS researcher Rene Loewenson. More ominous are the implications for SouthAfrica with a sophisticated industrial infrastructure as well as a widespread informal sector. While the SouthAfrican government is active in promotingAIDS education, it hasn’t the money, manpower or material to cope with the attack ofAIDS. By saying "The graph is heading toward the vertical" ( ParA、4) ,Drysdale wants to tell people______.A.something is wrong with the statistics B.the increase of theAIDS cases is fast C.the direction of the graph is a sign of improvement D.people seldom take it seriously