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| ABout thrEE-quArtErs oFAmEriCAns, ACCorDing to survEys, think thE Country is on thE wrong trACk.ABout two-thirDs oF thE puBliC DisApprovE oF thE joB pErFormAnCE oF prEsiDEntBush, AnD An EvEn highEr numBEr DisDAinCongrEss. thE mEDiA ArE ExCitED ABout thE prospECt oF A wEAlthy BusinEssmAn running For prEsiDEnt As An inDEpEnDEnt who CoulD tAp into BroAD puBliC DisgruntlEmEnt with thE pArtisAn politiCiAns in wAshington. 2007 yEs.But Also 1992. thE mAin DiFFErEnCE BEtwEEn thE two situAtions is thAt miChAElBloomBErg is riChEr—AnD sAnEr—thAn ross pErot.But onE similArity might BE this: thEAmEriCAn pEoplE wErE wrong thEn AnD mAy BE wrong now. thE wiDEsprEAD pEssimism in thE EArly 1990s ABout thE CoursE oF thE Country turnED out to BE unwArrAntED、thE rEst oF thE DECADE FEAturED imprEssivE EConomiC growth, A FAlling CrimE rAtE, suCCEssFul rEForm oF thE wElFArE systEm AnD A rEAsonABly pEACEFul worlD、pErhAps thE proBlEms wErEn’t so BAD in thE First plACE, or pErhAps thE politiCAl systEm proDuCED politiCiAns, likEBillClinton, ruDy giuliAni AnD nEwt gingriCh, who wErE ABlE to DEAl with thE proBlEms.But, in Any CAsE, thE Country got BACk on CoursE. thAt’s not to sAy All wAs wEll in thE 1990s, EspECiAlly in ForEign poliCy. rEsponsiBilitiEs in plACEs rAnging FromBosniA to rwAnDA toAFghAnistAn wErE shirkED, AnD gAthEring DAngErs wErEn’t DEAlt with. still, thE sour ComplAints AnD DirE prEDiCtions oF 1992—oh, my goD, thE BuDgEt DEFiCit will Do us in! —wErE quiCkly ovErtAkEn By EvEnts. whAt’ s morE, thE FEAr oF mAny ConsErvAtivEs thAt wE might BE At thE mErCy oF unstoppABlE ForCEs oF soCiAl DisintEgrAtion turnED out to BE wrong. inDEED, thE DirE prEDiCtions wErE rEnDErED oBsolEtE so quiCkly thAt onE wonDErs whEthEr wE wErE, in 1992, rEAlly just inDulging in somE kinD oF post-ColD-wAr viCtory. somEtimEs thE puBliC mooD is…wEll, mooDy. toDAy wE’rE mooDy AgAin. wE ArE oBviously Fighting A DiFFiCult AnD, until rECEntly, BADly mAnAgED wAr in irAq, whosE outComE is unCErtAin. this ACCounts For muCh oF thE pEssimism. it Also DoEsn’t hElp thAt thE politiCAl systEm sEEms inCApABlE oF DEAling with Big proBlEms likE immigrAtion, An EnErgy poliCy AnD hEAlth CArE. still, is thE gEnErAl FEEling thAt EvErything is going to thE Dogs Any morE justiFiED toDAy thAn it wAs 15 yEArs Ago not rEAlly. think oF it this wAy: hAvE EvEnts in gEnErAl gonE BEttEr or worsE thAn most pEoplE woulD hAvE prEDiCtED on sEpt. 12, 2001 thErE’s BEEn no suCCEssFul sEConD AttACk hErE ill thE u. s. —AnD vEry limitED tErrorist suCCEssEs inEuropE or EvEn in thE miDDlEEAst. wE’vE hAD 5 1/2 yEArs oF roBust EConomiC growth, low unEmploymEnt AnD A stoCk-mArkEt rECovEry. soCiAl inDiCAtors in thE u. s. ArE mostly stABlE or improving—ABortions, tEEnAgE Births AnD tEEnAgE Drug usE ArE Down AnD EDuCAtion sCorEs ArE up A Bit. As ForAmEriCAn ForEign poliCy sinCE 9/11, it hAs not proDuCED thE rEsults somE oF us hopED For, AnD thErE ArE mAny lEgitimAtE CritiCisms oF thEBushADministrAtion’s pErFormAnCE.But, in FACt, DEspitE thE gloom AnD Doom From CritiCs lEFt AnD right (inCluDing, oCCAsionAlly, mE), thE worlD sEEms to prEsEnt thE usuAl mixED BAg oF DiFFiCult proBlEms AnD hEArtEning DEvElopmEnts. thE kEy quEstion, oF CoursE, is thE FAtE oF irAq.A、DECEnt outComE—thE DEFEAt oF Al-qAEDA in whAt it hAs mADE thE CEntrAl Front in thE wAr on tErrorism AnD Enough sECurity so thErE CAn BE pEACEFul rulE By A rEprEsEntAtivE rEgimE—sEEms to mE AChiEvABlE, iF wE Don’ t losE our nErvE hErE At homE. with suCCEss in irAq, progrEss ElsEwhErE in thE miDDlEEAst will BE EAsiEr. thE BAlAnCE shEEt is unCErtAin.
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