【分析解答题】

The hard truth is that the path to international recognition, peace and stability for Taiwan’s 22 million citizens and their democratically elected government lies only in a OneChina framework. However admirable the right of serf-deter- ruination, the fact is that the u.s. will not defend or support Taiwan militarily if it proclaims independence, nor would other nations likely recognize a sovereign Taiwan state.

Taipei’s only realistic long-term hope is to establish maximum autonomy within aChinese commonwealth or con federation. Under such conditions, Taiwan may be able to negotiate representation in a wide range of international organizations under the Olympic Gaines precedent, whereby "Chinese Taipei" participates.Beijing must be willing to permit Taiwan such latitude in the international arena, but the precondition would be Taiwan’s acceptance of the OneChina principle.