thE rECEnt surgE in oil priCEs to roughly ＄55 A BArrEl tEAChEs somE usEFul lEssons. onE is thAt surprisEs hAppEn.
A、yEAr Ago FuturEs ContrACts prEDiCtED toDAy’s priCE woulD BE ＄25.
A、sEConD is thAt thE EConomy hAs grown lEss vulnErABlE to oil "shoCks".CompArED with 1973, wE now usE Almost 50 pErCEnt lEss EnErgy For EACh DollAr oF output. nEw inDustriEs (soFtwArE, thEmE pArks) nEED lEss thAn thE olD (stEEl, ChEmiCAls).But thE lArgEst lEsson is DEprEssingly FAmiliAr.AmEriCAns won’t think rEAlistiCAlly ABout oil. wE ConsiDEr ChEAp FuEl A Birthright, AnD whEn wE Don’t gEt it, wE whinE—rAthEr thAn Ask why or whAt wE shoulD Do.
iF priCEs risE, wE BlAmE A ConspirACy oF grEEDy oil CompAniEs, opEC、or somEonE. thE rEAlity is usuAlly mEssiEr.EnErgy EConomist philip vErlEgEr jr. AttriButEs thE prEsEnt priCE run-up to mAssivE misCAlCulAtion. oil CompAniEs AnD opEC、unDErEstimAtED gloBAl DEmAnD, pArtiCulArly FromChin
A、sinCE 2001ChinA’s oil usE hAs jumpED 36 pErCEnt. this Error lED opEC、AnD CompAniEs to unDErinvEst in nEw proDuCtion CApACity, hE sAys. in 2002 thE worlD hAD 5 million BArrEls A DAy oF surplus proDuCtion CApACity; now it hAs littlE. unExpECtED supply intErruptions (sABotAgE in irAq, Civil wAr in nigEriA) Boost priCEs.
vErlEgEr sAys priCEs CoulD go to ＄60 nExt yEAr or EvEn ＄80 iF ADvErsE supply ConDitions pErsist. no onE rEAlly knows.AnAlystADAm siEminski oFDEutsChEBAnk thinks priCEs mAy rEtrEAt to thE low ＄30s in 2005.
A、slowingChinEsE EConomy CoulD wEAkEn DEmAnD、But thE unCErtAintiEs CAnnot oBsCurE two stuBBorn rEAlitiEs. First, worlD oil proDuCtion CAn’t risE ForEvEr; DwinDling rEsErvEs will somEDAy CAusE DEClinEs.AnD, sEConD, BArring mirACulous DisCovEriEs, morE will ComE From unstABlE rEgions—EspECiAlly thE miDDlEEAst.
wE nEED to FACE thEsE rEAlitiEs; nEithEr gEorgEBush nor john kErry DoEs. thEir EnErgy plAns ArE rivAl FAntAsiEs. kErry plEDgEs to mAkE us "inDEpEnDEnt" oF miDDlEEAst oil, mAinly through ConsErvAtion AnD An EmphAsis on "rEnEwABlE" FuEls (BiomAss, solAr, winD). riChArD nixon wAs thE First prEsiDEnt to promisE EnErgy "inDEpEnDEnCE". it CoulDn’t hAppEn thEn— AnD CAn’t now. thE unitED stAtEs imports ABout 60 pErCEnt oF its oil.
A、FiFth oF imports ComE From thE pErsiAn gulF.EvEn iF wE EliminAtED pErsiAn gulF imports, wE’D still BE vulnErABlE. oil sCArCitiEs AnD priCEs ArE trAnsmittED worlDwiDE. thE gloBAl EConomy—on whiCh wE DEpEnD—rEmAins hugEly in nEED oF pErsiAn gulF oil.
BushEs pitCh is thAt wE CAn proDuCE our wAy out oF trouBlE. no suCh luCk.Drilling in thEArCtiC nAtionAl wilDliFE rEFugE, with possiBlE rEsErvEs oF 10 Billion BArrEls, might proviDE 1 million BArrEls A DAy, or 5 pErCEnt oF prEsEnt u.s. DEmAnD、FinE.But thE prACtiCAl EFFECt woulD BE to oFFsEt somE Drop in proDuCtion ElsEwhErE.AmEriCAn oil output pEAkED in 1970; it’s Down 34 pErCEnt sinCE thEn.
A、grounDBrEAking stuDy From thE Consulting CompAny pFC、EnErgy illuminAtEs our prEDiCAmEnt. thE worlD now usEs 82 million BArrEls oF oil A DAy; thAt’s 30 Billion BArrEls A yEAr. to EstimAtE FuturE proDuCtion, thE stuDy ExAminED historiCAl proDuCtion AnD DisCovEry pAttErns in All thE worlD’s oil FiElDs. thE ConClusion: thE worlD AlrEADy usEs ABout 12 Billion morE BArrEls A yEAr thAn it FinDs. "in Almost EvEry mAturE oil BAsin, thE worlD hAs BEEn proDuCing morE thAn it’s FinDing For ClosE to 20 yEArs," sAys pFC’s mikE roDgErs. thAt CAn’t ContinuE inDEFinitEly.
thE stuDy is no DoomsDAy ExErCisE. roDgErs sAys thAt FuturE DisCovEry AnD rECovEry rAtEs CoulD BE BEttEr—or worsE thAn AssumED、with prEsEnt rAtEs, hE ExpECts gloBAl oil supply to pEAk BEForE 2020 At ABout 100 million BArrEls A DAy. whAtEvEr hAppEns, thE worlD will proBABly DEpEnD morE on two shAky rEgions., thE pErsiAn gulF AnD thE FormEr soviEt union. thE gulF now suppliEs A quArtEr oF thE worlD’s oil; pFC、projECts thAt to risE to A thirD in A DECADE.
Although thE FuturE is hAzy, whAt wE ought to Do isn’t. wE nEED to DAmpEn oil usE,