【分析解答题】

Vietnam has become one of the fastest-growing countries inAsiaIf foreign investment is anything to go by, the nominally communist rulers of Vietnam have made their peace with capitalism. The country raked in foreign direct investment worth more than 8% of GDP last year, even more, proportionally, thanChin

A、After its oversized and overheating neighbors, Vietnam also boastsAsia’’s best-performing economy. It has grown by an average of 7.4% a year over the past decade and is likely to achieve a similar figure this year.Better yet, the boom has lifted many Vietnamese out of poverty.As recently as 1993, the WorldBank considered 58% of the population poor.By 2002, that had fallen to 29%.Can Vietnam maintain this remarkable momentum So far, its economy has proved unstoppable. Neither last year’’s outbreak of SARS, a respiratory disease which scared away tourists, nor this year’’s avian flu epidemic, which hurt poultry farmers, made much of a dent.Even during theAsian financial crisis of the late 1990s, when other countries in the region were plunged into recession, growth in Vietnam never fell below 4.8%. At first, agricultural reform, which redistributed land from the state to poor farmers, propelled the boom. More recently, export growth, fuelled by cheap, efficient labour and burgeoning foreign investment, has driven the economy.Exports leapt 20% last year.AsDoDueDinh, a local economist, points out, the money Vietnam earns from this trade — roughly $ 20 billion last year—now dwarfs the $ 2 billion — odd it gets each year in hand-outs from foreign donors. Vietnam’’s exports toAmerica doubled in 2002, after the two countries signed a trade pact, and again in 2003. Admittedly, as trade withAmerica grows, it has become more controversial. Last year,American catfish farmers, by invoking arcane anti-dumping laws, persuaded their government to impose steep tariffs on imports of Vietnamese catfish. NowAmerican shrimp-fishermen are trying to repeat the same trick.American bureaucrats are also contemplating reducing the amount of garments Vietnam can export toAmerica, as a penalty for allowingChinese-made clothes to enterAmerica on Vietnam’’s quot
A、Even if Vietnam is let off the hook, the quota will from now on only grow by a few percentage points a year.Between 2001 and 2003, by contrast, textile exports to the United States grew from $ 47 million to $2.4 billion. But Vietnam’’s diversified exports — it produces commodities, agricultural goods and manufactures — provide insulation against fluctuations in any single product. Its markets are diverse, too, although catfish exports toAmerica fell by a third after the new tariffs were imposed, overall exports of catfish grew, as Vietnamese exporters found new customers inEurope andAustrali
A、Vietnam also hopes to join the World Trade Organisation next year.But even if this deadline slips, it still has its trade pact withAmerica, its membership ofAFTA, a South-EastAsian free-trade area, and its proximity toChin
A、Small businesses have also boomed, since the government passed a new law in 2000 making it easier to set them up.By the end of 2002, over 50,000 new companies had sprung up.But as Martin Rama of the WorldBank points out, Vietnam has almost no middling private firms between these mom-and-pop ventures and big exporters backed by foreign investors.Such businesses find it hard to grow because they cannot readily get access to land or capital.About half of bank lending goes to state-owned enterprises, although that share is falling. What is more, even if banks (mostly state-owned themselves) wanted to lend to entrepreneurs, the latter have little collateral to pledge for their loans. In Vietnam, the state owns all the land and grants land-use rights to farmers, businesses and home-owners.Although these are theoretically transferable, banks are fearful that Vietnam’’s antiquated courts would not enforce their rights. Such f