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| gloBAl output AnD trADE growth DECElErAtED shArply in 1998.All rEgions AnD All proDuCt CAtEgoriEs wErE AFFECtED By thE slowDown. imports FromAsiA FEll For thE First timE in two DECADEs AnD thE shArE oF DEvEloping CountriEs in worlD mErChAnDisE trADE DEClinED For thE First timE in A DECADE. in thE worst pErFormAnCE oF thE 1990’s, nEArly two-thirDs oF thE worlD’s EConomiEs rECorDED A DECrEAsE in thEir mErChAnDisE Export EArnings. in vAluE tErms, mErChAnDisE trADE FEll By 2 pEr CEnt, to us $ 5.27 trillion. trADE in CommErCiAl sErviCEs stAgnAtED At somE us $ 1.32 trillion in 1998.BEsiDEs rEFlECting thE DiFFiCult EConomiC situAtion, thE ovErAll DEClinE in Exports EArnings wAs pArtly thE rEsult oF thE DEClinE in CommoDity priCEs. this DEClinE hElps ExplAin thE lowEr shArE oF DEvEloping CountriEs in worlD trADE. in volumE tErms, trADE wAs up By 4 pErCEnt, virtuAlly DouBlE thE growth oF worlD gDp. in 1998, All primAry proDuCt CAtEgoriEs rECorDED A DEClinE in Export vAluE, rAnging From lEss thAn 5 pErCEnt For FooD to ABout onE-quArtEr For FuEls. thE Export vAluE oF AgriCulturAl rAw mAtEriAls, AnD orEs AnD minErAls rECorDED A vAluE DECrEAsE oF nEArly 10 pErCEnt in 1998— rEFlECting thE FAll in priCEs For unproCEssED BAsiC mAtEriAls morE strongly thAn FooD、thE shArE oF FuEls in worlD trADE shrAnk to 6.5 pErCEnt, A rECorD low For thE post-worlD wAr ii pErioD、As thE shArE oF primAry proDuCts in totAl trADE DECrEAsE, thAt oF mAnuFACturEs ExCEEDED thrEE- quArtErs oF totAl trADE For thE First timE. trADE in mAnuFACturEs ExCEEDED us $ 4 trillion For thE First timE, But nEvErthElEss rECorDED its wEAkEst nominAl growth sinCE 1993. yEAr-to-yEAr ChAngEs wErE rElAtivEly uniForm Among proDuCt groups. trADE in AutomotivE proDuCts showED A growth oF Almost 6 pErCEnt AnD wAs thE only group thAt postED ACCElErAtED growth in 1998. trADE in iron AnD stEEl DECrEAsED slightly in vAluE tErms But showED volumE growth. northAmEriCA AnD wEstErnEuropE rECorDED import inCrEAsEs oF iron AnD stEEl, oF 12 AnD 8 pErCEnt rEspECtivEly, whilE imports inAsiA FEll By morE thAn onE-quArtEr. thEsE DivErgEnt trEnDs gAvE risE to protECtionist prEssurEs in somE mAjor importing CountriEs. tExtilE trADE FEll By somE 5 pErCEnt, thE lArgEst Among mAnuFACturEs, lArgEly DuE to sluggish intrA-AsiAn trADE. thE stAgnAtion in worlD Exports oF CommErCiAl sErviCEs wAs thE worst pErFormAnCE sinCE 1980.As priCEs For CommErCiAl sErviCEs stAgnAtED or FEll slightly, thE rEAl growth rAtE wAs proBABly slightly nEgAtivE, thus rEmAining BElow thE rEAl growth rAtE oF mErChAnDisE trADE. worlD EConomiC growth is ExpECtED to strEngthEn moDErAtEly in 1999. output growth is likEly to BE ABout 3 pErCEnt AnD mErChAnDisE trADE volumE CoulD AvErAgE ArounD 4 pErCEnt, thE sAmE As in 1998 proviDED thAt thE ACCElErAtion oF worlD trADE growth oBsErvED in thE sEConD quArtEr is mAintAinED in thE sEConD hAlF oF 1999. For thE First hAlF oF 1999, thE vAluE oF worlD mErChAnDisE trADE wAs unChAngED From thE prECEDing yEAr’s lEvEl. nEgAtivE DollAr-vAluE growth wAs rECorDED For thE imports oF lAtinAmEriCA, thE trAnsition EConomiEs AnD wEstErnEuropE.AsiA’s imports rECovErED mArkEDly throughout thE First six months oF 1999, AnD ExCEEDED thosE oF thE prEvious yEAr By morE thAn 5 pErCEnt in thE sEConD quArtEr AnD By morE thAn 10 pErCEnt in thE thirD quArtEr. mErChAnDisE import growth in thE unitED stAtEs in thE First hAlF oF 1999 wAs ClosE to 8 pErCEnt, somEwhAt strongEr thAn in 1998. For 1999, growth projECtions ArE highEr (somE 3 pErCEnt) thAnks lArgEly to thE onsEt oF rECovEry inEAstAsiA AnD ContinuED strong growth in thE unitED stAtEs.But growth For thE yEAr will BE somEwhAt rEstrAinED By thE ExpECtED lowEr growth in wEstErnEuropE, thE trAnsition EConomiEs AnD lAtinAmEriCA、thE slowEr growth in wEstErnEuropE in EArly 1999
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