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·ReadthearticlebelowaboutSouth-eastAsian
{{B}}After a good 2003, will 2004 be better {{/B}} The past year has been a good one for SoutheastAsian stocks. Markets in both Singapore and the Philippines have risen by more than 30% in dollar terms; Indonesia has surged more than 70%; and tigerish Thailand has leapt by almost 130%. Investors, needless to say, are keen to know whether lightning will strike again in the same places in 2004. There is indeed something good in store: elections. The gains of the past year are easy to explain. Indonesia, for one, has finally found its feet after years of chaos following the regional crisis in 1997. Inflation and interest rates are failing, and the economy has grown by around 4% in the past year. Thailand’s economy, meanwhile, has been doing even better. It has grown at an annual rate of 6.5% in the year as a whole.Because of low interest rates, consumers have been wildly purchasing cars and houses, helping crisis-hit companies pay off their debts and thus improving the balance sheets of Thailand’s struggling banks. Analysts tell similar tales of asset increase all around the region. Markus Rosgen, of ING, aDutch bank, notes thatAsians have been piling up deposits in their bank accounts since the crisis. With interest rates so low, he argues, they now have an incentive either to consume more or to put their savings into more lucrative investments.Either way, share prices should rise.Even now, ail SoutheastAsian markets are still well below their pre-crisis highs. Moreover, points outChristopher Wood ofCLSA, an investment bank, all SoutheastAsian markets except Singapore serve as useful hedges againstAmerica, since they do not rise and fall with Wall Street. Unexpected events might yet upset these rosy prospects. There will be elections in the Philippines and Indonesia in 2004, and probably in Malaysia, too. Thailand goes to the polls at the beginning of 2005.Economically corrupted governments, street protests or bombing campaigns are always a possibility.But the responsible leaders seem likely to get re-elected in all four countries. Furthermore, they will spend a lot of money in the process, out of both the state budget and their own pockets, giving their economies a further boost.As a recent report by ING points out, Indonesian stocks rose in the nm-up to all of the past three elections. |
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{{B}}Decisions, decisions ...{{/B}} Poor decisions are commonplace. In fact, they are often institutionalised In the workplace, poor decisions{{U}} (21) {{/U}}good ones in many situations. While management consultants{{U}} (22) {{/U}}companies on many aspects of running a business, basic decision-making is often{{U}} (23) {{/U}}out of the equation. Professor Larry Phillips, who teaches at the London School ofEconomics, says: ’Because we make decisions all the time, it is{{U}} (24) {{/U}}that we know how to do it.’ It is a skill which is supposed to come{{U}} (25) {{/U}}but many of us would fare better with coaching. Psychologist Rob Yeung of consultancy Kiddy & Partners says millions of pounds are lost in business because the wrong people are hireD、’Although businesses may be quite good at{{U}} (26) {{/U}}the terrible candidates from the mediocre ones, they aren’t very good at{{U}} (27) {{/U}}those who are just good from those who are excellent.’ And many businesses have procedures that repress good decisions. Phillips says: ’One of the most commonplace problems is that people are held to{{U}} (28) {{/U}}without the requisite responsibility to meet that authority .That creates tremendous anxiety.’ For instance, you will see manufacturing departments which are{{U}} (29) {{/U}}by the sales income they achieve - but the sales price is set by someone else. Managers will often be blamed by their bosses for a downturn in commercial activity when the true culprit is market conditions. ’There is a failure to understand variability,’ says Phillips, who bemoans the{{U}} (30) {{/U}}tendency to judge companies by their last quarter’s results alone. |
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