most oF thE illusions thAt DEFinED thE tAtE gloBAl EConomiC Boom—thE notion thAt gloBAl growth hAD movED to A non-stop highEr plAnE AnD housing priCEs From miAmi to mumBAi woulD risE inDEFinitEly—ArE now inDEED ExhAustED、yEt onE iDEA still hAs thE powEr to CApturE imAginAtions AnD mArkEts: it is thAt CommoDitiEs likE oil, CoppEr, grAins AnD golD ArE All DEstinED to risE ovEr timE. lots oF smArt pEoplE BEliEvE thAt lAst yEAr’s inCrEAsE in CommoDitiEs priCEs rEprEsEntED A pAusE in A long-tErm Bull mArkEt.
it’s viEw rootED in powErFul AnD rEAl trEnDs, likE thE growth oF inDiA, thE DEClinE in gloBAl rEsErvEs, FEArs ovEr rEsourCE nAtionAlizAtion AnD long-tErm lACk oF invEstmEnt in EnErgy AnD AgriCulturE, whiCh limits supply.
At Any point in timE, thErE ArE AlwAys nEw EConomiC powErs EmErging on thE gloBAl sCEnE, yEt proDuCt priCEs hAvE ContinuED to FAll. thE 1980s AnD 1990s wErE A rElAtivEly strong pErioD For thE gloBAl EConomy, AnD inDiA wAs growing At An AvErAgE pACE oF 7 pErCEnt.But priCEs For most CommoDitiEs DiD not Follow, oil, For ExAmplE, nEvEr BrokE through thE uppEr limit oF $40 A BArrEl.
thE rEAson oil priCEs DiD not spikE highEr is simplE: DEmAnD For Any proDuCt is priCE-ElAstiC, whiCh mEAns thAt onCE thE priCE goEs too high, ConsumErs stop Buying it or mAkE hEroiC EFForts to FinD A suBstitutE.
thErE is gooD rEAson to BEliEvE thAt thE worlD just pAssED A similAr turning point. thE lAst Boom in thE oil priCEs CollApsED in 1979, whEn totAl spEnDing on oil ExCEEDED 7 pErCEnt oF gloBAl gDp. lAst yEAr, spEnDing on oil hit A similAr shArE oF gloBAl gDp, AnD thE priCE hAs sinCE FAllEn By morE thAn two thirDs.
yEt mArkEts ArE still BEtting thAt thE priCE oF oil is poisED to spikE AgAin. somE AnAlysts prEDiCt $90 A BArrEl By 2012. it’s worth noting thAt until As rECEntly As 2005, thE mArkEts ACtED on thE ExACt oppositE Assumption. For yEArs, sport priCEs rAn muCh highEr thAn FuturEs priCEs, BECAusE most invEstors AssumED priCEs woulD Follow thE historiC trEnD linE: Down. toDAy invEstors ArE sill rEACting to Any sign oF hEAlth in thE gloBAl EConomy By pouring monEy BACk into CommoDitiEs, proDuCing thE unstABlE upwArD priCE swing wE’vE sEEn in rECEnt wEEks.
whAt is rElAtion BEtwEEn thE EConomy AnD thE proDuCt priCEs
A、proDuCt priCEs will FAll whEn thE EConomy gEts strong.
B、proDuCt priCEs will go thE sAmE wAy with thE EConomiC trEnD、
C、proDuCt priCEs ArE thE BAsis oF thE EConomy.
D、nEw EConomiC powErs DEtErminE thE proDuCt priCEs.